Key, Electric Vehicle Headlines

There are three key headlines for US electric vehicle sales after the first six months of 2016:

  1. BEV (battery powered vehicles) sales have stalled.
  2. PHEV (plug-in vehicle) sales are up dramatically.
  3. HEV (hybrid) sales are down dramatically.

US Sales of Electric Vehicles, Including HEVs 2016

Month

Hybrid (HEVs)

PHEVs* 

Battery (BEVs)

Totals

Total PHEV & EV

January

20,967

3,137

3,576

27,680

6,713

February

24,371

3,909

4,424

32,704

8,333

March

28,756

5,290

7,115

41,161

12,405

Total 1Q

74,094

12,336

15,115

101,545

27,451

Total 1Q 2015

86,005

7,722

14,127

107,854

21,849


% 1Q change


-16%


37%


7%


-6%


20%

April

28,988

5,842

6,266

41,096

12,108

May

30,573

5,619

6,526

42,718

12,145

June

27,679

6,094

7,678

41,451

13,772

Total 2Q 2016

87,240

17,555

20,470

125,265

38,025

Total 2Q 2015

104,965

10,787

20,069

135,821

30,856


% 2Q change


-17%


63%


2%


-8%


23%

*Extended Range Vehicles

(Data from Electric Drive Transportation Association)

Introduction:

BEVs are vehicles powered entirely by battery power. PHEVs use the battery to travel for the first 35 miles, but then switch to an internal combustion engine to extend its range.

An important distinction between HEVs, such as the Prius, and BEVs or PHEVs is that an HEV can travel on battery power for an extremely short distance, if at all, while BEVs and PHEVs can travel for at least 35 miles using batteries alone.
HEVs are essentially battery-assisted vehicles that use the internal combustion engine to power the car.

Perhaps the most significant observation after the first six months of 2016, is that the sale of battery-powered vehicles (BEVs) has stalled.

This, in spite of the hype that Tesla received when it announced its new Model 3, priced at $35,000, with a 215 mile range.

It’s possible that drivers are beginning to see the PHEV as a better value than a BEV, since PHEVs have a range comparable to ordinary internal combustion engine vehicles of approximately 400 miles.

This may also account for the substantial increase in PHEV sales.

Meanwhile, sales of the HEV, similar to the original Prius, have fallen dramatically.

The price premium of HEVs is difficult to offset when gasoline prices are as low as they have been this year.

Norway, where 50,000 BEVs have been sold, provided generous subsidies for electric vehicles, so generous it was almost foolish to not purchase a BEV, has decided to roll back the subsidies. This could seriously crimp Tesla’s sales in Europe where Tesla has outperformed German luxury car makers.

Meanwhile China has been a disappointment for Tesla.

Tesla
Tesla

Tesla has been the most important seller of BEVs in the United States, with the LEAF and other manufacturers BEVs accounting for only a small part of BEV sales during the first six months of 2016.

Any slowdown in European sales by Tesla could be significant if BEV sales in the United States have stalled.

In addition, when Tesla sells more than 200,000 vehicles in the United States, Tesla vehicles will no longer be eligible for the $7,500 tax credit, which is likely to affect Tesla’s sales.

The media is, of course, still hyping BEVs, but the next six months could be a negative turning point for Tesla if sales of BEVs remain sluggish.

* * * * * *

Nothing to Fear explains why CO2 isn’t to be feared. Chapter 15, An Alternative

Hypothesis, describes Dr. Svensmark’s hypothesis on cosmic rays.

Nothing to Fear is available from Amazon and some independent book sellers.

Link to Amazon: http://amzn.to/1miBhXy

Book Cover, Nothing to Fear
Book Cover, Nothing to Fear

* * * * * *

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0 Replies to “Key, Electric Vehicle Headlines”

  1. Lois: Thanks for the new information.
    I agree with your summary. Your comment on the graphite issue is very interesting. Will natural flaws in the carbon create problems?
    I agree that the reliance on solar is very interesting. It’s also not very smart. I don’t know the load, so can’t evaluate whether the added cost will have a significant effect on battery pack cost. I also don’t know whether he is getting a 30% subsidy for the cost of installing the solar panels. If so, which I think he is getting, this lowers his cost … again at tax payer expense.

    • Carbon deposits are always interesting. I had the opportunity to work with a New Jersey company called Asbury Carbon several years back and their brochure shows the variety of carbon products they sell, including flake graphite (natural graphite). I am not sure if there are any flaws in the product but I wonder about the amount of supply that is out there.
      https://asbury.com/homepage_pdf/Brochure.pdf
      Here is another carbon company that is interesting to watch for graphite exploration and mining since they are also combining pegmatite deposits for lithium sources.
      http://www.saintjeancarbon.com/index.php/news/2016-press-releases1/
      For amusements, here is an article on graphite production in the early days in NJ.
      http://www.njgeology.org/enviroed/infocirc/graphite.pdf
      According to this article, it looks like our Green Energy batteries, which employ graphite, are really (chuckle) fossil fuel products. I wonder if there will be carbon taxing of this material?
      As for the solar energy source for the Gigafactory, Elon Musk appears to be really good at cobbling together tax credits since he has merged his solar business with the battery business.

  2. Pingback: Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #234 | Watts Up With That?

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